Written by: Ian

 

 

 

With rumours hotting up, and the announcement of the Wii U at last year’s E3 in Los Angeles, how long will it be before we actually see a new generation of consoles? Some customers and the gaming press are clearly ready now, as we are long past the normal point in the console lifecycle where new machinery would be available.

 

However, the mass-market is less keen, given that only the Wii out of the existing consoles has hit the magic £100 price point, and continuing strains on all of our wallets given the world financial situation. Additionally, with less money going into PC development, it is only very recently that there has been clear superiority shown on home computers.

 

Will 2012 be the turning point? MCV suggested earlier this month that all 3 major players will show off new hardware by E3, and some had even suggested the next Xbox would have been shown at CES this year, which turned out to be very, very wrong.

 

Doomsayers have predicted that Sony won’t even bother with a PS4 due to the insane R&D costs associated with the PS3. The Playstation division, as a result, has struggled to turn a profit since 2006. In this light, PlayDevil has looked at all the rumours and is predicting when we will see the next consoles released and announced.

 

 

The Wii is the easiest of the three to predict. We already know the shape, the tablet controller and target specs. Nintendo has also announced that it is aiming to release the console at some point in its upcoming financial year, from roughly Q2 2012 to Q2 2013.

 

Given the position of Microsoft, and the fact that hardware-wise, the Wii U is barely more powerful (if at all) than the current HD consoles, it would make sense to see the console before the end of 2012. It could even end up with a surprise release at E3, but that would be rather un-Nintendo like.

 

Announcement: Already released

 

Release date:

1^st half 2012: 1/5

2^nd half 2012: 4/5

1^st half 2013: 2/5

2^nd half 2013 or beyond 1/5

 

 

 

The next Xbox doesn’t have a name yet, and it will be the hardest to predict what it will be called- although don’t expect the Xbox name to disappear. From rumours and speculation, it seems like Microsoft are again planning to launch ahead of Sony, but I’d be very surprised if they were ready to launch in 2012, even though there have been rumblings of target machines going out to developers as early as last year. With the minimum of 18 months to make a decent game nowadays, that still seems too late for anything worthwhile to be ready by this Christmas.

 

Having said that, an announcement this year is very likely. E3 may be too early, or, if I am wrong and the console will be out by Christmas, then we may see a pre-E3 event, much like when the 360 was announced in May 2005. If the launch isn’t until 2013 though, don’t expect to see it Q1 or Q2 unless Sony spring a surprise on everyone- look out for it sometime between September and November 2013.

 

Announcement:

2012: 5/5

2013: 1/5

 

Release date:

1^st half 2012: 0/5

2^nd half 2012: 2/5

1^st half 2013: 2/5

2^nd half 2013 or beyond 4/5

 

 

 

Forget the naysayers and doom-mongers. If we don’t see a PS4, I’d be genuinely shocked. However, given Sony’s unique approach to console manufacture and development, we may be in a situation where a PS4 isn’t available until 2014, and even then is unlikely to offer vast amounts of horsepower over whatever Microsoft put out. Of course, Sony could choose to skip a generation, but that again seems very unlikely.

 

There’s been little to no talk of the PS4, but Sony have a tendency to be able to hide these things rather better until just before the announcement, when everything and anything is leaked out. It will also be interesting to see if Sony include support for anything interested and revolutionary, and hold back for that. After all, there are TVs in the pipeline that can support more than 1080p amongst other innovations.

 

Personally, I think it would be suicide to launch more than 6 months after Microsoft (although that could conceivably still be 2014 given my prior prediction), but again, Sony have a long history of not giving a toss what the analysts think about their decisions, preferring to get their product right (at least what they think is right, anyway) before showing it off. A launch before the next Xbox is pretty much unthinkable, and I reckon that even if Sony do spring an unlikely surprise, Microsoft would bring forward their own launch, even if supply was constrained.

 

Announcement:

2012: 4/5

2013: 3/5

 

Release date:

1^st half 2012: 0/5

2^nd half 2012: 1/5

1^st half 2013: 2/5

2^nd half 2013 or beyond 4/5

 

 

So, there you have it, my predictions on a scale of 1-5 of when I reckon the consoles will be announced and launched. Feel free to go wild in the aisles down in the comments section to agree or disagree with me.

 

Here’s hoping that 2012 is a year of great announcements!